Mutihazard Assessment and Scenario Toolbox (MhAST)

Compound extremes correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, leading to substantial impacts such as infrastructure failure. Hurricane Harvey, with more than 100 fatalities, is an example of concurrent hazards (extreme precipitation and storm surge); and recent mudslide in California, with a death toll of 20 people in Montecito, CA, is an example of consecutive hazards (significant precipitation a few weeks after the Thomas wildfire). In many risk assessment and design applications, however, multi‐hazard scenarios of extremes and compound events are ignored. MhAST presents a general framework for obtaining multi‐hazard design and risk assessment scenarios and their corresponding likelihoods. This framework also quantifies the underlying uncertainties of multi‐hazard scenarios, and employs an ensemble of univariate and multivariate models for robust risk assessment.

Reference:  

Sadegh, M., Ragno, E. and AghaKouchak, A. (2017), Multivariate Copula Analysis Toolbox (MvCAT): Describing dependence and underlying uncertainty using a Bayesian framework. Water Resources Research, 53, doi:10.1002/2016WR020242

Link: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016WR020242/epdf

Sadegh, Mojtaba, Hamed Moftakhari, Hoshin V. Gupta, Elisa Ragno, Omid Mazdiyasni, Brett Sanders, Richard Matthew, and Amir AghaKouchak. (2018), “Multi‐hazard scenarios for analysis of compound extreme events.” Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL077317

Link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL077317

Source code of MhAST in MATLAB:

Some data to play with MhAST:

If you don’t have MATLAB installed on your MAC, use the following executable version of MhAST:

If you don’t have MATLAB installed on your PC, use the following executable version of MhAST: