In the new “Recent Reads” series, prominent researchers describe a selection of papers from the last few years that have made an impact on their thinking about the direction of compound-events research or its implications. Shorter than a blog post, longer than a tweet, we hope these annotations provide a helpful glimpse into the work that others have been reflecting upon! – Colin Raymond
About me – I am Sha Zhou, a research scientist at the Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU). I received my Bachelor’s and PhD degrees from the Department of Hydraulic Engineering at Tsinghua University and worked as a postdoctoral researcher and associate research scientist at Columbia University before joining BNU in 2021. My research focuses on land-atmosphere interactions and hydroclimate changes, with an emphasis on climate extremes and their impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. By advancing our understanding of past and future climate system changes and their impacts on hydrological and ecological processes, my work aims to improve predictive capabilities and develop effective strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.
Recent reading notes on heat waves
This paper introduces a novel Lagrangian approach to quantify the contributions of advection, adiabatic warming, and diabatic heating to atmospheric hot extremes globally. The authors systematically decompose temperature anomalies during the hottest days of the year (TXIday events) and reveal strong geographical variations in the dominant processes. For instance, advection dominates over mid-latitude oceans, adiabatic warming near mountain ranges, and diabatic heating over tropical and subtropical land masses. The study also highlights that hot extremes often form over several days and large spatial scales, emphasizing the non-local nature of these events.
In my view, this work resolves a long-standing debate about the relative importance of different physical processes in forming hot extremes. By providing a global, quantitative breakdown, it offers a new framework for evaluating climate models and understanding how hot extremes may change in a warming climate. The findings are particularly important for improving climate projections and developing adaptation strategies, as they reveal that hot extremes are not just local phenomena but result from complex, large-scale atmospheric processes. The study also connects atmospheric dynamics with surface processes, offering a more integrated view of heat wave formation.
This paper investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of large contiguous heatwaves, focusing on their propagation patterns, including moving distance, speed, and direction. The authors identify significant changes in heatwave behavior from 1979 to 2020, with heatwaves becoming longer-lasting, traveling greater distances, and moving more slowly. These changes have been amplified since 1997, likely due to weakening eddy kinetic energy, zonal winds, and anthropogenic forcing. The study also highlights that these trends are more pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in regions like Eurasia and North America, where heatwaves are linked to atmospheric blocking and land-atmosphere feedbacks.
This work provides a comprehensive understanding of how heatwaves evolve in both space and time, addressing a gap in previous studies that primarily focused on fixed locations or durations. By introducing new metrics to track heatwave propagation, I feel that the study offers valuable insights into the mechanisms driving these changes, particularly the role of anthropogenic forcing. The findings are crucial for improving early warning systems and adaptation strategies, as slower-moving and longer-lasting heatwaves can have more severe impacts on human health, ecosystems, and economies. The study also connects atmospheric dynamics with climate change, suggesting that future heatwaves will be even more devastating if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. For me, this research underscores the need for immediate mitigation efforts to reduce the risks posed by these extreme events.
This paper investigates the role of anthropogenic climate change in altering the occurrence probabilities of marine heatwaves (MHWs). The authors show that the likelihood of large, impactful MHWs has increased more than 20-fold due to human-induced global warming. MHWs that were once rare events in the preindustrial era (occurring once every hundreds to thousands of years) are projected to become decadal to centennial events under 1.5°C warming and annual to decadal events under 3°C warming. The study focuses on seven major MHWs with documented ecological impacts, such as the Northeast Pacific 2013–2015 MHW and the Northwest Atlantic 2012 MHW, and quantifies their attributable risk to climate change using a consistent attribution framework.
This work provides a robust and systematic approach to attributing MHWs to anthropogenic climate change, addressing a significant gap in the literature. By quantifying the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) for MHW duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity, the study demonstrates that human activities have already substantially increased the likelihood of these extreme events. The findings are critical for understanding the risks posed by MHWs to marine ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to temperature changes. The study also highlights the urgent need for ambitious climate targets to mitigate future impacts, as even moderate warming (1.5°C to 3°C) will drastically reduce the return periods of MHWs, pushing marine ecosystems beyond their thermal limits. Ultimately, I think this research underscores the interconnectedness of climate change and marine biodiversity, offering a compelling case for immediate global action to limit warming and protect oceanic ecosystems.
This paper investigates the future shifts in compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events under different climate change scenarios. The authors project significant increases in the frequency, duration, and severity of CDHW events across various regions, particularly in East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America. The study highlights that the Southern Hemisphere will experience a greater increase in CDHW frequency, while the Northern Hemisphere will see a greater increase in severity. The authors also identify that regional warming plays a significant role in driving these changes, with disproportionate warming in certain areas exacerbating the risk of CDHW events.
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of how climate change will amplify the risk of CDHW events, which are known to have severe impacts on agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human health. By using a multi-model ensemble approach and considering different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the authors offer a robust projection of future CDHW risks. I would say that the findings are particularly important for policymakers and stakeholders in vulnerable regions, as they underscore the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the increasing frequency and severity of these compound extreme events. The study also highlights the importance of regional warming patterns, suggesting that localized climate policies may be necessary to address the disproportionate impacts of climate change in certain areas. This research bridges the gap between global climate projections and regional impacts, offering actionable insights for managing future climate risks.
Thanks for reading!
CompoundNET.
